Totally Unofficial (and Probably Unreliable) Oscar Predictions/Picks/Unsolicited Opinion 2015

I sorta stopped following this in early February, so I’m not super up on the politics/logistics/ritual magic that goes into the race each year, so this is going to be a little bit informed opinion and a little bit instinct. But you totally wait on this with bated breath every year, so how can I let you down?

First things first: I did not see any shorts, any of the animated films, and I only saw one in the foreign film category. I know, I’m as ashamed of myself as you are. What I have seen is in BOLD.

SOUND EDITING:

Will Win: American Sniper, because bullets. That seems to happen from time to time.

SOUND MIXING:

Will Win: Whiplash, because music tends to win here.

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Will Win: Interstellar… probably? 

ORIGINAL SONG:

Will Win: Glory, because it’s what they’re going to give to Selma.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Will Win: This seems sort of up in the air, but what I’ve heard most is The Theory of Everything.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, because I think they’re going to award everything they can about the look of this film. And Tilda looked amazing (in that she looked not at all like herself).

COSTUME DESIGN:

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, because see above.

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Will Win: GBH… ditto.

EDITING:

Will Win: Boyhood, because 12 years. Though there could be a groundswell for Whiplash, and I could get behind that.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Lubezki, because of the ‘continuous, unbroken shot’ gimmick, but there could be a push for GBH again in this category, because people just love that film. Or… could be Roger Deakins’ year, finally, but… I doubt it.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Will Win: Citizenfour, because it’s won everything else, and it’s the thing people most care about right now, but Finding Vivian Maier and Last Days in Vietnam I feel are far superior films. My pick would be Virunga, because I sobbed all through it. Seriously, what are you doing to justify your time here on earth? These men know.

FOREIGN FILM:

Will Win: Weirdly, it seems like people are predicting Ida… when I was still paying attention, I thought the opinion was Leviathan. And some are predicting Wild Tales. So… this may be a toss-up in your Oscar Pools.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel, because this is where they award the quirky ones, and it’s going to be the highest award they’ll give to this film that is really well-loved.

Note: Whiplash should be here, but the Academy really stupidly deemed it adapted because Chazelle produced a short (which was one scene that was included unaltered in the finished film) to get financing. I don’t love Whiplash at all, but it should be in this category.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

Will Win: Probably Whiplash, which again (see above), makes no sense. Because of that, it could be The Imitation Game, because that’s a true adaptation. Can’t believe American Sniper is even here.

My Pick: The un-nominated Wild, by Nick Hornby, or the universally praised Gone Girl. Boo, AMPAS. Terribly done in this category. BOO.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

My Pick: I would switch out Keira and Emma for Naomi Watts in Birdman and Rene Russo in Nightcrawler just for noms, because I’m on board with Arquette, and I’m really on board with Laura Dern and the celebration of Single Motherhood that I really enjoy. I loved seeing the points of view and stories of these women, who remind me of women I know and love, on screen. Nice to see something that resonates so personally with me… it’s rare.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Will Win: J.K. Simmons, because see above referenced landslide.

My Pick: Not really, because Simmons is great in general as well as in this (though I really didn’t care for the movie at all), but if it weren’t his year, it would be awesome if it were Edward Norton’s. He was my favorite part of Birdman.

BEST ACTOR:

Will Win: Michael Keaton, because I think the Academy will stay true to form and ultimately vote for the old guy who reminds them of themselves. Or the precursors could mean Redmayne will win… or they could split the vote and Cooper could win… Regardless, this is a little bit of a mess of a category, and I don’t personally care who wins it. Though…

My Pick: David Oyelowo should have been nominated.

BEST ACTRESS:

Will Win: Julianne Moore, because it’s a beautiful, subtle performance, but more than that, it’s time. There hasn’t been a sure-fire winner like this since… well last year, with Cate Blanchett.

My Pick: Well, my opinion… this category is embarrassingly strong in comparison with Best Actor, and embarrassingly from films (almost all) unrepresented in Best Picture. AMPAS has always done that in this category, as they don’t celebrate stories of women with Best Picture nominations, and it’s especially egregious and glaring this year. I was really moved by and identified very strongly with Wild and Two Days, One Night, and Gone Girl was an extremely popular picture and a complicated story expertly told and portrayed. Boo, AMPAS. Boo.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Will Win: Richard Linklater… I think? Because

Iñárittu has won all the precursors that usually predict this, but I think AMPAS is getting tired of people telling them what to do. And they might be awarding the technical and revolutionary achievement of Boyhood, but I really don’t know. At this point, I should mention that Oscar Pools are gambling, and gambling can be a dangerous vice with consequences, so… don’t blame me.

BEST PICTURE:

Will Win: Birdman, because I think the Academy will give it to the story that’s the most relatable to them, and I think they’re enjoying decoupling this from Best Director lately.

My Ranking:

  1. Selma
  2. Birdman
  3. The Grad Budapest Hotel
  4. The Imitation Game
  5. Boyhood
  6. The Theory of Everything
  7. Whiplash
  8. American Sniper

Feel free to argue with me (or praise me – I respond well to praise… and sweets) in the comments. Enjoy this most blessed and holy of days! ;)