Oscar Picks/Predictions 2014

*Originally posted on Facebook*

Richard usually posts his predictions each year as a note here on Facebook, then I post mine in the comments or something, and other people respond, and… it’s all interactive and faux-social in that cyberspacey, social-networky way. But for some reason, The Precious sent his out via Email, and as a result, I’m feeling rootless and as though Oscarmas is somehow lessened. So… I’ll just post mine here, shall I, because maybe there’s someone somewhere actually interested in what I have to say about a dozen or so movies that few else actually care about?

Movies I’ve seen are in bold.

Let’s get the sheepish admissions out of the way now:

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

LIVE ACTION SHORT

ANIMATED SHORT

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

…didn’t see any. But, for Foreign Language Film, it’s probably between The Hunt and The Great Beauty, so… (shrug) there you have it.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Frozen – no big shock.

My Vote: Frozen – I’m no big animation fan (nothing wrong with it, I just don’t gravitate toward it), but I got all weepy watching this.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: Supposedly between The Square and 20 Feet from Stardom, with the latter more likely so it’s what I’ll predict.

My Vote: 20 Feet from Stardom – It’s one of the most flat-out enjoyable movie experiences I’ve ever had.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: People are predicting Gravity, and it’s possible if it’s going to sweep all the ‘below the line’ categories.

My Vote: Eh… Gravity is fine, but I don’t have a really strong opinion… other than it was a really surprising omission to me that Hans Zimmer wasn’t nominated for 12 Years a Slave, because it was the only score I recall really noting as I watched.

ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: I don’t think anyone’s predicting anything other than “Let it Go.”

My Vote: “Let it Go,” because, come on. Idina.

SOUND EDITING

Will Win: A number of tech Academy members have specifically noted Captain Phillips and their support of it, so it could surprise, but it’s likely to be Gravity in that every-technical-nod-gets-a-check thing.

My Vote: I’m totally on board with Gravity here.

SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Gravity – if Inside Llewyn Davis had any sort of actual support (like, it was clear that large numbers of people actually *liked* it), then maybe it would have spoiled here, but nah.

My Vote: Gravity. 

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Gravity. In a landslide.

My Vote: Gravity, because when you invent the technology just to tell the story you want to tell, the Academy notices. And… yeah, it’s awesome.

MAKEUP & HAIR

Will Win: Dallas Buyers Club. There’s a lot of buzz about how the budget was only $250 for the entire film, and all the multimillionaire bigwigs love that sorta quaint shit.

My Vote: Dallas Buyers Club, because that budget was only $250! And it’s been mentioned time and again that McConaughey and Leto lost all the weight they were going to lose at the beginning, and since they shot wildly out of sequence, it was only through makeup that they looked more or less (comparatively) healthy for whichever scene was being shot… so, yeah.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: Gravity.  It’s a rather bothersome trend that lately (I think for the last 5 years) this category has gone to the film which also wins Visual Effects. There are different considerations (obviously) for films so heavily CGI (and obviously I can’t comprehend what those are), but I’m sad that ‘traditional’ photography just doesn’t seem to cut it anymore.

My Vote: Prisoners, because I’ll keep picking Roger Deakins until he wins. However, the shocking omission here was 12 Years a Slave, which was a definite sign that the movie didn’t have overwhelming support in the Academy.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will Win: Most people are predicting The Great Gatsby.

My Vote: The Great Gatsby, because I drank the Baz Luhrman Kool-Aid long ago, and I thought this was cracktastically appropriately inappropriate, in a conspicuous-consumption-vs-Jazz-Age’s-seedy-underbelly way. For the record, Her did look absolutely amazing. I’d be totally fine if it won.

COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: The Great Gatsby, though there is a bit of a groundswell that American Hustle could spoil.

My Vote: The Great Gatsby, because see above. Plus, I do remember the seventies, and I’m quite sure not every single woman’s neckline reached her navel. But, hey, that’s just like… my opinion, man.

FILM EDITING

Will Win: Captain Phillips is the buzz, but mainly because Gravity has such long, uninterrupted takes, and people like to ‘see’ the editing.

My Vote:  I can get behind that, but only because the glaring omission of The Wolf of Wall Street here means I can’t make my real pick.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: 12 Years a Slave, I’m pretty sure, though I do agree with Richard that if anything’s going to spoil, it could be Philomena, which I’d be fine with.

My Vote: I’m actually completely fine with any of these winning, though I’d pick (and here’s where things take a turn and I start trumpeting a favorite) The Wolf of Wall Street.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: It’s definitely a race between American Hustle and Her, and I’m betting on the latter, if for no other reason that a win for AH would be rage-inducing.

My Vote: Her, because it’s unique, complex, and gorgeous, and exactly the sort of script that this category should be rewarding.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Jared Leto, liek woah.

My Vote: Honestly, I’d be fine with any one of them, but I’d be most happy if it were Michael Fassbender.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: I’m quoting Richard here: Lupita better fucking win this. I can’t even go into the fact that there’s some suspense that Jennifer Lawrence could pull it out here. No. And for the record, JLaw was the most enjoyable thing about AH for me. But… no.

My Vote: Lupita Nyong’o. No one else is even close here for me. 

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: McConaughey has got this, though people are talking like there’s suspense here.

My Vote: Leonardo DiCaprio. It’s a monster performance, and in a few years, the narrative is going to be all about how he shouldn’t be winning for whatever he’ll be the shoe-in for, because it’s just a make-up for the Wolf of Wall Street, and he really should have won for that, blah, blah, blah… I’m just so tired of that shit. And seriously, if you love McConaughey’s performance or think it’s the best of the lot, that’s fine, but please stop talking about his being ‘due.’ Seriously. DiCaprio was nominated for the first time twenty years ago. For the record, I would be totally thrilled if Ejiofor won.

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Cate Blanchett, fyeah.

My Vote: Jasmine is on a continuum of iconic roles with Scarlett, Blanche (of course), and Sophie. It’s a masterpiece performance, the kind that actually gives this award meaning, and she’s had this in the bag since the movie opened.

DIRECTOR

Will Win: Cuaron. 

My Vote: Cuaron totally deserves it and I’m fine with the win, but my pick is Steve McQueen. I just find the tone and the pace of 12 Years a Slave so extraordinary, and I don’t believe another director could have made anywhere near as perfect a picture out of the same story.

Picture

Will Win: I think conventional wisdom, trends, buzz and conscience is going to make it 12 Years a Slave. It is definitely Best Picture material along with actually being the best picture of the year. Fancy that. :)

My Vote: I’m going to do a preferential ballot like Richard did, because… fun!

  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. The Wolf of Wall Street
  3. Her
  4. Gravity
  5. Philomena
  6. Dallas Buyers Club
  7. Captain Phillips
  8. American Hustle
  9. Nebraska