Even More Oscar Predictions You Never Asked For

*Originally posted on Facebook*

Another year, another attack of unsolicited opinion.

First off, let me confess that I have seen neither the Shorts, nor any of the Foreign Films. Yeah, yeah, I’m disappointed in myself too. But some people say Bear Story is going to win Animated Short, Stutterer will win Live Action Short, Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah will win Documentary Short, and Son of Saul is basically definitely going to win Foreign Film. So you can’t say I never helped you win your Oscar pools. ;)

UPDATE: Sunday, February 28th… I started this last night, intending to finish it early this morning, and then started throwing up at 3am. :( I’m gonna soldier on and finish, but it’s not going to be as verbose as usual. Which, actually… works out well for all of you. :)

VISUAL EFFECTS:

WILL WIN: Star Wars: The Force Awakens, because… uh… Star Wars. They kinda invented this sorta thing (or, that’s what people think, anyway, and that’s just as well).

MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because it’s 80% practical, and it all looks so, so good. SPOILER ALERT… I really love Mad Max: Fury Road. Brace yourselves for the rest of this thing.

SOUND EDITING:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because engines revving, chains clinking, flames shooting, the constant thrum of the guitar and drums bearing down on them from a distance, and… everything. And, because the loudest usually wins, action flicks tend to win this, and this is THE Action Flick.

SOUND MIXING:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because they tend to pick the same movie for both sound categories, and, again… because it’s awesome. Though… I should mention that some people think The Revenant could take this one. *shrug*

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because that’s an amazingly realized world built from only their imagination. There are rumblings for some others, but… nah. Of course, The Revenant’s nomination here was a BIG clue that it had tremendous support thoroughout the academy, because… seriously?

ORIGINAL SONG:

WILL WIN: “Til It Happens To You,” which means we have to sit through more Lady Gaga. I’ve been so tired of her for so long. Sigh.

MY PICK: I honestly don’t care about this category. I rarely do.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

WILL WIN: Ennio Morricone, with his (shockingly) first competitive Oscar after a long, glorious career. I hope this doesn’t mean we’ll have to sit through another acceptance speech from Tarantino where he takes all the credit, but I fear we might.

MY PICK: I actually really liked Sicario’s score.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because the War Boys. And Immortan Joe. So shiny. So chrome. (read the reviews: http://www.amazon.com/Wilton-710-5521-Silver-Color-Mist/dp/B005KTVG86/ref=cm_cr_pr_product_top?ie=UTF8)

FILM EDITING:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, because… I can’t even articulate a ‘because’; you just have to see it to understand that the success of that film is in the editing. She’s got this one.

COSTUME DESIGN:

WILL WIN: I suspect this one’s going to go more traditionally, but the predictions are not in sync on this one. It’s likely going to be Sandy Powell, but whether for Carol or Cinderella, I’m not sure. I’d bet on Carol, because it’s the only prize of the night they’re likely to get. And no, that’s not okay. :(

MY PICK: Mad Max: Fury Road, of course, because again, it’s a wholly unique vision, rendered “completely from scratch.” (as Richard says, so credit to him)

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

WILL WIN: Lubezki, definitely, for his third consecutive win (previously Birdman and Gravity). People are just madly in love with what he did in that landscape with only natural light.

MY PICK: It’s crazy that I’m saying John Seale, especially when Roger Deakins is just right there, with his THIRTEENTH nomination, but… I’m just crazy for the look of Mad Max. Witness: https://media.giphy.com/media/gE192xLKaqVAk/giphy.gif

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

WILL WIN: Amy. It’s won mostly everything else, and it’s exactly the kind of documentary they like. And it’s wonderful, and heartbreaking…

MY PICK: …but then so is What Happened, Miss Simone. I get weirded out about the documentary category, because it feels like such a value judgement on the subject matter, and when more *important* docs don’t win, I’m… uncomfortable. Whatever. FYI, Cartel Land is really, really engrossing and good.

ANIMATED FEATURE:

WILL WIN: Inside Out in a landslide.

MY PICK: Sure. Yeah, I liked it.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

WILL WIN: Spotlight, because I think this is what they’re going to give it. More on that later.

MY PICK: I loved Spotlight, but I wish there were room for Ex Machina to get the prize here, because it’s just the kind of script they should reward in this category. And, “I’m gonna tear up the fucking dance floor, dude. Check it out.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6HXmYi6Jw8

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

WILL WIN: The Big Short, because that’s what they’re gonna give it.

MY PICK: Um… any of them here would be fine with me.

BEST DIRECTOR:

WILL WIN: Iñárritu, second year in a row (only the third to do that, after John Ford and Joseph Mankiewicz. And because they made a big deal about the conditions filming, and blah, blah… It’s a lackluster win, and I think people will regret it.

MY PICK: Of course… George Miller. Because if you’re looking for an auteur who steered the ship of a wholly unique vision with perfection, this is the only guy here. https://38.media.tumblr.com/4c1e0584846b64ad316ecd119b323443/tumblr_inline_o2x94oigdp1roavgs_500.gif

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

WILL WIN: Alicia Vikander, in the usual category fraud (she’s absolutely a lead). Kate could spoil, but I doubt it.

MY PICK: I think I’d prefer Kate here, mainly because of the fraud, but Vikander really rose above that material. That movie is a mess, and she anchored some big moments with her performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Sylvester Stallone, because… ROCKY. And because everyone has always loved Rocky because the *movie* Rocky and how it was made *is* a Rocky story, and Stallone taking that character where he does in Creed is just a gift. So it’s nostalgia, and a career win, and a surprisingly extraordinary performance from a more limited actor, but… he’s earned every bit of it. And if you can watch the final scene of Creed without at least tearing up, you have no soul.

UNNOMINATED: Idris Elba, who gives one of the best performances of the year in Beasts of No Nation. I’m a little too dizzy still right now to go into the whole thing like I planned, so… lucky you. Dodged that bullet. I also think Oscar Isaac should have been in here.

BEST ACTRESS:

WILL WIN: Brie Larson, because it’s lovely, she’s lovely, and the ACADEMY LOVES INGENUES.

MY PICK: I like Brie, and I’m fine with it, but if I had my way, and the Academy weren’t such dirty old men: A career-great performance by Charlotte Rampling, who carries every moment of that devastating film.

BEST ACTOR:

WILL WIN/MY PICK: Leo. Yes, it’s time (if not ‘overdue’, as some are taking umbrage with that phrase), and I’m super happy about it. It’s the most distinctive and committed performance from a weak-ish field, and no, I don’t think it’s his ‘Scent of a Woman,’ and I don’t think it’s going to be super embarrassing years from now. I wish he’d won for both the Departed and Wolf of Wall Street, but… It’s lovely now nonetheless.

UNNOMINATED: Michael B. Jordan from Creed should have been a part of the conversation all awards season, but he never gained any traction (WB supposedly was caught unaware by the critical acclaim and didn’t mount a campaign), and that’s all she wrote. He should have knocked out any of a couple of the above. Ditto for Jacob Tremblay for Room, and Abraham Attah, from Beasts of No Nation.

BEST PICTURE:

WILL WIN: The Revenant… Ugh. Fine. Whatever.

MY RANKINGS:
MY RANKINGS:
Mad Max: Fury Road
Spotlight
Room
The Martian
Brooklyn
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Big Short

This was more difficult than I thought after numbers 1 and 2… I don’t dislike The Big Short overly, nor Bridge of Spies. There’s just sort of a large tie.

Okay, thanks for reading!
More predictions: Jason Boegh: https://www.facebook.com/jason.boegh/posts/10154028310450337

And I’ll update with Richard Morrison’s when he posts.